A new international climate study co-authored by the University of Fiji’s Adjunct Professor Shobha Maharaj warns that small island nations like Fiji are dangerously unprepared for a future where global warming exceeds 1.5°C, a scenario that is now more likely than ever.
Published in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, the paper titled “Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C” calls for urgent, strategic adaptation planning in regions most at risk.
The research highlights that adaptation plans built around the assumption that the 1.5°C warming cap will be maintained are outdated and inadequate, especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
Adjunct Professor Maharaj, Science Lead at the University of Fiji’s Ecological and Climate Crises Legal Institute (ECCLI), is also a Lead Author of the IPCC’s AR6 Working Group II and a contributor to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) climate ruling, an international legal milestone that validated the scientific realities faced by SIDS.
“Fiji and other Pacific nations cannot afford to plan for a climate scenario that assumes the 1.5°C ceiling will hold,” said Professor Maharaj. “Overshoot is already happening. We need to shift our mindset from planning to doing and we need to do it strategically.”
“The risk is not only that we overshoot 1.5°C, but that we are unprepared when we do. If we continue implementing adaptation plans based on outdated assumptions, we will fall further behind just when we need to act most urgently.”
The study emphasizes that overshooting 1.5°C will increase the frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. For nations like Fiji, this could mean irreversible damage to coastal ecosystems, widespread disruption to food and water security, and the forced relocation of entire communities. The paper critiques the current global approach to adaptation, noting that most efforts remain reactive, underfunded, and mismatched with the severity of emerging climate realities.
Professor Maharaj stated that adaptation strategies in the Pacific must evolve to become more anticipatory and integrated. This involves moving beyond planning documents to real implementation solutions that are flexible, scalable, and responsive to more extreme warming scenarios.
“Adaptation efforts in the Pacific are mostly reactive, under-resourced, and based on outdated climate assumptions,” she said. “We must begin developing proactive, flexible plans that account for higher levels of warming. Without this shift, even well-intentioned actions will fall short.”
“We must ensure that what we implement today will still be effective tomorrow when warming levels could be well beyond 1.5°C. Fiji has the opportunity to lead the Pacific in this transformation.”
In response to this challenge, the University of Fiji through ECCLI is exploring the establishment of a regional adaptation think tank.
The initiative aims to convene policymakers, researchers, and development partners across the Pacific to co-design strategies that are informed by science, sensitive to local realities, and built for long-term climate resilience.
The Vice Chancellor Professor Shaista Shameem said the establishment of UniFiji’s ECCLI with Adjunct Professor Shobha Maharaj leading the assessment of climate crises in Fiji and the region meant that the University of Fiji was well-placed to provide much needed value to the work being done regionally on climate mitigation and adaptation for the good of future generations of Pacific peoples.
